Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina: Recuperación Post Pandemia - 27 de Mayo, 2021 - Moody's Analytics
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Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina:
Recuperación Post Pandemia
DR. ALFREDO COUTIÑO JUAN PABLO FUENTES JESSE ROGERS
DIRECTOR ECONOMISTA ECONOMISTA 27 de Mayo, 2021
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 1
Ponentes
Dr. Alfredo Coutiño es director en Moody’s Analytics, y es responsable del análisis
económico en tiempo real, y de modelos y pronósticos para América Latina.
Juan Pablo Fuentes es un economista en Moody's Analytics, donde produce análisis en
tiempo real, pronósticos y escenarios alternativos para las economías de América Latina.
Jesse Rogers es un economista en Moody’s Analytics donde cubre las economías de
Perú y Chile, así como temas de comercio internacional.
Moderadora
Dra. Anamaría Pieschacón es directora y cabeza global del servicio de validación de
modelos de riesgo crediticio para carteras de consumo en Moody's Analytics.
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 2
Moody's Analytics opera de forma independiente de las
actividades de calificación crediticia de Moody's Investors
Service. Nosotros no hacemos comentarios sobre las
calificaciones crediticias o cambios potenciales asociados.
Asimismo, ninguna opinión o análisis que se escuche durante
esta presentación refleja la opinión de la agencia de calificación.
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 3Agenda
1. Evolución Reciente y Perspectivas
» Recuperación en marcha
» Perspectivas económicas 2021
2. Pandemia y Escenarios Alternativos
» Supuestos
» Escenarios
3. Riesgos Político-Económico-Social
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 41 Evolución Reciente y
PerspectivasRecuperación en Marcha, Pero se Modera
América Latina PIB real, tasa de crecimiento %, con ajuste estacional
12
Trimestral Anual
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
-16
17T1 18T1 19T1 20T1 21T1
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas
Perspectivas
Económicas
Económicas
de América
de América
Latina,Latina,
AgostoMayo
20202021 6 6Recuperando lo Perdido: Nivel Prepandemia
PIB real, % con respecto al nivel de 2019T4, con ajuste estacional
10
Chl 3.1% Bra 1% Col -0.7% Per -1.6 Arg -3.1 Mex -4.0%
0
-10
-20
-30
19T4 20T1 20T2 20T3 20T4 21T1
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 7Impulsores del Crecimiento
Tasa trimestral del PIB y contribución de los componentes de demanda, %
PIB real, crecimiento anual, %
10
8 PIB
6 Consumo
4 Inversión
2 Exportaciones
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
20T1 20T2 20T3 20T4
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 8Perspectivas 2021: Los Motores Externos
PIB real, tasas de crecimiento anual (%), con ajuste estacional
20
Estados Unidos (6.8%) China (8%)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
19T1 20T1 21T1
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas
Perspectivas
Económicas
Económicas
de América
de América
Latina,Latina,
AgostoMayo
20202021 9 9Avance de la Vacuna: Inmunidad Colectiva
Personas vacunadas como porcentaje de la población (65% mínimo)
México Abr 22
Colombia Mar 22
Brasil Feb 22
Argentina Dic 21
Uruguay Sep 21
Chile Ago 21
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
0=enero 2021
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 10Políticas Acomodaticias: Estímulo a Demanda Interna
Tasa de interés de política monetaria, anual %
8
México Brasil Chile Colombia Perú
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Dic-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dic-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dic-21
Fuentes: Bancos Centrales, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 11Repunte Económico en 2021
PIB real, crecimiento anual, %
2020 2021
-11.2
Perú 9.1
-6.0
Chile 6.3
-9.9
Argentina 5.6
-6.8
Colombia 5.3
-8.5
México 4.8
-7.1
LATAM 4.8
-4.4
Brasil 4.3
-5.9
Uruguay 3.0
-14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics, escenario básico
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 12Crecimiento por Regiones
PIB real, crecimiento anual, %
PIB 9real, crecimiento anual, %
2020 2021
6 4.8 4.8 5.2
3
0
-3
-6
-6.6 -6.2
-7.1
-9
América Latina América del Sur América Central
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics Nota: América Central excluye México.
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 13Amenaza Creciente: Aceleración Inflacionaria
Tasa anual de inflación, %
PIB 8real, crecimiento anual, %
Jun 20 Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic Ene 21 Feb Mar Abr
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Brasil México Chile Perú
Fuentes: Institutos Nacionales de Estadísticas, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 14Inflación con Raíz Monetaria
Base monetaria real / PIB real, tasa % anual
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 152 Pandemia y Escenarios
AlternativosEscenarios Alternativos
Actualizados cada mes
El pronóstico básico es el “resultado más probable” basado en las condiciones actuales y
nuestra visión sobre la dirección que lleva la economía.
Realizamos múltiples simulaciones para obtener una distribución de probabilidades con posibles
resultados.
S0 Más Optimista (Percentil 4)
S1 Optimista (Percentil 10)
B Básico (Percentil 50)
S3 Pesimista (Percentil 90)
S4 Más Pesimista (Percentil 96)
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 17Diferentes Supuestos para cada Escenario
Paths S0 S1 BASICO S3 S4
PIB GLOBAL Fuerte expansión Expansión Expansión Leve recesión Fuerte recesión
PRECIO de MATERIAS PRIMAS
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
Pico de Infecciones Pico en Mayo Pico en Mayo Pico en T2 Pico en T4 2021 Pico en T1 2022
Amplia Disponibilidad de Segunda mitad
Julio 2021 Septiembre 2021 T4 2021 Primera mitad 2022
vacunas 2022
Fecha de abatimiento Primera mitad
T3 2021 T4 2021 T4 2022 2023
(Pandemia Se Ha Intensificado en la Región
Casos diarios de COVID-19, agregado 7 países mas grandes, promedio móvil 14-días
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Apr-20 May-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21
Fuentes: Johns Hopkins CSSE COVID-19 Data Repository, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 19Campaña de Vacunación Avanza Gradualmente
Población vacunada con al menos una dosis, %
20 60
Brasil México
Argentina Colombia 50
16 América del Sur Chile (D)
40
12
30
8
20
4 10
0 0
Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21
Fuentes: Our World in Data, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 20Pandemia ha Sido Muy Severa en la Región
Casos confirmados de COVID-19 al 19/05/2021, casos por millón de habitantes
U.S.
Argentina
Brasil
Chile
Colombia
Perú
México
0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 75,000 90,000 105,000
Fuentes: Johns Hopkins University, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 21Difícil Reapertura de las Economías en LatAm
Evolución de visitas a sitios de recreación comparado al nivel pre-pandemia, %
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
Enero Marzo Mayo (1 - 17)
-50
ARG BRA CHL COL MEX PER
Fuentes: Google LLC COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 22Evolución del PIB Ante Posible Escenarios Alternativos
PIB real agregado para LatAm, bil 2012 USD
6,600
Básico S1 S3 S4
6,300
6,000
5,700
5,400
5,100
4,800
4,500
19T1 20T1 21T1 22T1 23T1 24T1 25T1
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 23Evolución de la Pandemia Determinará Recuperación
LatAm PIB real agregado, tasa de crecimiento, %
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Básico S1 S3 S4
-4
-6
2021 2022 2023
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 24Precios de Materias Primas, Variable Clave
Precio del petróleo crudo Brent, dólares por barril
80
Básico S1 S3 S4
70
60
50
40
30
20
19T1 20T1 21T1 22T1 23T1 24T1 25T1
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 25Desempleo Surge en Escenarios de Riesgo
Tasa de desempleo agregada para LatAm, %
15
Básico S1 S3 S4
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
19T1 20T1 21T1 22T1 23T1 24T1 25T1
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 263 Riesgos Político-
Económico-SocialCrisis de Confianza y Baja en Aprobación Política
Colombia, %
80
Tasa de aprobación, presidente Índice de confianza del consumidor
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20 Apr-21
Fuentes: Fedesarollo, Invamer, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 28Pobreza Continúa a la Alza
% de la población en situación de…
60
Pobreza Pobreza extrema
50
40
30
20
10
0
90 94 97 99 00 02 04 05 06 08 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Fuentes: CEPAL, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 29Descontento Político Aumenta en La Región
% de la población que considera que la democracia es preferible a cualquier otra forma de gobierno
75
70
65
60
55
50
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016/17 2018/19
Fuentes: Vanderbilt University, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 30Intensa Agenda Electoral
Fecha País Elecciones
6-Jun-21 México Legislativas
6-Jun-21 Perú Presidenciales,segunda ronda
14-Nov-21 Argentina Legislativas
21-Nov-21 Chile Presidenciales
28-Nov-21 Honduras Presidenciales, legislativas, municipales
13-Mar-22 Colombia Legislativas
29-May-22 Colombia Presidenciales
2-Oct-22 Brasil Presidenciales, generales
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Mayo 2021 31Preguntas? Contáctenos en: help@economy.com Favor de completar la encuesta y compartir sus comentarios con nosotros!
Contáctenos: Nuestras Oficinas - Economics & Business Analytics
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