Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina: Recesión y Recuperación - Agosto, 2020 - Moody's Analytics
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Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina:
Recesión y Recuperación
DR. ALFREDO COUTIÑO JUAN PABLO FUENTES JESSE ROGERS
DIRECTOR ECONOMISTA ECONOMISTA Agosto, 2020
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 1
Ponentes
Dr. Alfredo Coutiño es director en Moody’s Analytics, y es responsable del análisis
económico en tiempo real, y de modelos y pronósticos para América Latina.
Juan Pablo Fuentes es un economista en Moody's Analytics, donde produce análisis en
tiempo real, pronósticos y escenarios alternativos para las economías de América Latina.
Jesse Rogers es un economista en Moody’s Analytics donde cubre las economías de
Perú y Chile, así como temas de comercio internacional.
Moderadora
Dr. Anamaría Pieschacón es directora y cabeza global del servicio de validación de
modelos de riesgo crediticio para carteras de consumo en Moody's Analytics.
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 2
Moody's Analytics opera de forma independiente de las
actividades de calificación crediticia de Moody's Investors
Service. Nosotros no hacemos comentarios sobre las
calificaciones crediticias o cambios potenciales asociados.
Asimismo, ninguna opinión o análisis que se escuche durante
esta presentación refleja la opinión de la agencia de calificación.
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 3Agenda
1. Evolución Reciente y Perspectivas
» Primera mitad del año
» Perspectivas: Escenario Básico
2. Pandemia y Escenarios Alternativos
» Evolución de la Pandemia
» Escenarios Optimista y Pesimista
3. Riesgos Latentes
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 41 Evolución Reciente y
PerspectivasCOVID-19 Hunde al Mundo en Recesión: Enero-Junio
Riesgo de extiende en 2019
Recuperación
En riesgo
En recesión
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 6La Epidemia Avanza en la Región
Número de casos confirmados, millones de personas
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago
Fuentes: Organización Mundial de la Salud, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 7Las Monedas se Desploman, Aunque se Recuperan Algo
Moneda local por dólar (US), cambio % con respecto a Dic 2019
5
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
ARG BRA CHL COL MEX PER
Fuentes: Bancos Centrales, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 8Mayoría de Mercados Busátiles Aún con Pérdidas
Indices de precio de acciones, diciembre=100
130
Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia México
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
4-Jan 4-Feb 4-Mar 4-Apr 4-May 4-Jun 4-Jul 4-Aug
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 9Exportaciones Reciben Golpe Externo
Tasas de crecimiento anual, %
30
Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia México Perú
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
31-Jan 31-Mar 31-May 31-Jul 30-Sep 30-Nov 31-Jan 31-Mar 31-May
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 10Actividad Económica se Desploma en 2ndo. Trimestre
Indices de actividad, tasas de crecimiento anual (%), sin ajuste estacional
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun
-35
-40
ARG BRA CHL COL MEX PER
Fuentes: Institutos de Estadísticas, Bancos Centrales, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 11Desempleo: El Gran Costo Social de la Crisis
Tasas de desempleo, %
25
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun
20
15
10
5
0
BRA CHL COL MEX PER
Fuentes: Institutos de Estadísticas, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 12Alivios Fiscales Para Empresas y Familias
Estímulo fiscal como proporción del PIB, %
Perú
Brasil
Chile
Colombia
Argentina
Uruguay
México
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 13Medidas Monetarias de Apoyo a la Economía
Tasa de interés de política monetaria, %
9
México Brasil Chile Colombia Perú
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20
Fuentes: Bancos Centrales, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 14Inicio de la Reactivación Económica
Indices de actividad, tasas mensuales (%), ajustadas por estacionalidad
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun
-20
ARG BRA CHL COL MEX
Fuentes: Institutos de Estadísticas, Bancos Centrales, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 15Proyección Básica: Supuestos
1. Pico de la epidemia se alcanza en Agosto (no hay segunda ola).
2. Proceso de reapertura económica avanza gradualmente.
3. Estímulos fiscal y monetario se mantienen en 2020.
4. Destrucción de capital físico y humano limita la capacidad futura.
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 16Perspectivas 2020: Recesión Más Profunda del Siglo
PIB real, crecimiento anual, %
Colombia
Chile
Uruguay
Brasil
LatAm
Argentina
México
Perú
-14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics, Escenario Básico
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 17Crecimiento por Regiones
PIB real, crecimiento anual, %
PIB
4.0real, crecimiento anual, %
2019 2020
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
América Latina América del Sur América Central
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics.
Nota: América Central excluye México.
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 18Recuperación de Capacidad Productiva: Camino Largo
% del producto potencial del escenario sin crisis (Marzo, 2020)
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
20Q1 21Q1 22Q1 23Q1 24Q1 25Q1
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas
Perspectivas
Económicas
Económicas
de América
de América
Latina,
Latina,
Agosto
Agosto
20202020 19192 Pandemia y Escenarios
AlternativosEscenarios Alternativos
Actualizados cada mes
El pronóstico básico es el “resultado más probable” basado en las condiciones actuales y
nuestra visión sobre la dirección que lleva la economía.
Corremos múltiples simulaciones para obtener una distribución de probabilidades con posibles
resultados.
S0 Más Optimista (Percentil 4)
S1 Optimista (Percentil 10)
B Básico (Percentil 50)
S3 Pesimista (Percentil 90)
S4 Más Pesimista (Percentil 96)
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 21Diferentes Supuestos para cada Escenario
Paths S0 S1 BASICO S3 S4
PIB GLOBAL
PRECIO de MATERIAS PRIMAS
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
Pico de Infecciones Pico en Agosto Pico en Agosto Pico en Agosto Pico en Octubre Pico en Diciembre
Tasa de Mortalidad Global 2.9% 2.7% 3.3% 5.1% 5.8%
Fecha de abatimiento
T1 2021 T1 2021 Junio 2021 T4 2021 T4 2021
(Pandemia Todavía no Alcanza Punto de Inflexión
Casos por millón de habitantes, días desde el caso 100, escala logarítmica
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
10
ARG BRA CHL COL MEX PER
1
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Fuentes: Johns Hopkins CSSE COVID-19 Data Repository, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 23La Región es Nuevo Centro de la Pandemia
Casos confirmados de COVID-19 al 23/08, casos por millón de habitantes
Chile
Perú
U.S.
Brasil
Colombia
Argentina
México
Venezuela
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000
Fuentes: Johns Hopkins University, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 24Número de Pruebas Muy Lejos de Lo Necesario
Mediados de Agosto o último dato disponible
140
Pruebas diarias por cada 100 mil personas Tasa de casos positivos, %
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
CHL COL BRA ARG PER MEX
Fuentes: Harvard Global Health Institute, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 25Lenta Reapertura de las Economías en LatAm
Disminución de visitas a sitios de recreación comparado al nivel pre-pandemia, %
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
Abril 1- 15 Junio 1-12 Agosto 1-09
-90
ARG BRA CHL COL MEX PER
Fuentes: Google LLC COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 26Escenarios Alternativos para la Recuperación
PIB real agregado para LatAm, bil 2012 USD
6500
Básico S1 S3
6000
5500
5000
4500
19Q1 20Q1 21Q1 22Q1 23Q1 24Q1 25Q1
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 27Evolución de la Pandemia Determinará Recuperación
PIB real agregado para LatAm, tasa de crecimiento, %
10
5
0
-5
Básico S1 S3
-10
-15
2020 2021 2022
Fuentes: Harvard Global Health Institute, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 28Escenarios Alternativos para la Recuperación
Precio de petróleo crudo Brent, dólares por barril
85
Básico S1 S3
75
65
55
45
35
25
15
19Q1 20Q1 21Q1 22Q1 23Q1 24Q1 25Q1
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 29Desempleo Permanece Alto en Escenario de Riesgo
Tasa de desempleo agregada para LatAm, %
16
Básico S1 S3
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
19Q1 20Q1 21Q1 22Q1 23Q1 24Q1 25Q1
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 303 Riesgos Latentes
Desigualdad Persistente
Coeficiente de GINI, 2018 o último año disponible
Brasil
Colombia
Venezuela
LatAm
México
Chile
Nigeria
Perú
Argentina
EEUU
Malaysia
Indonesia
India
Canadá
Japón
Alemania
Korea
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Fuentes: Banco Mundial, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 32Menor Espacio Fiscal
Capacidad de endeudamiento soberano, dada la tasa de interés
350
Círculo=Tamaño economía, US$
300
Eje Y: Aumento máximo sostenible en la deuda a PIB, %
250 Eje X: Deuda a PIB, %
Perú Nota: Datos a 2020Q2
200
150 Colombia
100
Chile
50 Brasil Argentina
0 México
Uruguay
-50
0 50 100 150 200 250
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 33Tensiones Geopolíticas Presionan al Comercio
Exportaciones reales, 2015m6 =100
130
EEUU Latam China Europa Asia
120
110
100
90
80
70
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Fuentes: CPB, Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 34Sentimiento Mundial Aún Débil
Encuesta mundial de negocios, % de empresas con planes de …
70
Invertir Contratar Aumentar precios
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20
Fuente: Moody’s Analytics
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina, Agosto 2020 35Preguntas? Contáctenos en help@economy.com Por favor complete la corta encuesta a continuación y comparta sus comentarios con nosotros!
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